The Nuclear Threat Today

The threat of nuclear weapons has been a fact of life on earth since the second half of the 20th century. The size of nuclear arsenals worldwide peaked at more than 35,000 warheads in the 1980s and remains at approximately 27,000 warheads today, including strategic and tactical weapons. The sophistication of the science and the political dependence on the doctrine of deterrence -- the threat of "mutually assured destruction" as a strategy for security -- have both increased steadily since 1945. In that year, the US dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki; World War II ended; and the Cold War began.

Today, the Cold War has officially ended, though its doctrines still shape international politics. Relationships among countries, regional conflicts, and even some local conflicts continue to reflect the Cold War struggle, in which allegiances were forged through conventional military aid and promises of protection under the nuclear umbrella of one superpower or the other.

The tendency to resort to violence has not lessened in the first years of the 21st century, as exemplified by the war against Iraq and ongoing conflicts in Africa and parts of Asia. The capacity for violence, however, has increased exponentially in the form of massive stockpiles of nuclear weapons and nuclear materials, continuous military preparation and training for the use of nuclear weapons, and state policies that rely on nuclear deterrence for the indefinite future. The nature of the nuclear threat today has many elements:

• The United States has an estimated 7,000 operational strategic nuclear weapons. Russia has almost 6,000.
• France has approximately 450 nuclear weapons in its operational stockpile; Britain approximately 185. China is thought to maintain an arsenal of about 400 warheads.
• India and Pakistan tested nuclear weapons and declared themselves nuclear weapon states in May 1998; both countries have continued to develop and test missile delivery systems.
• Israel is assumed to have about 200 nuclear weapons.
• The DPRK (North Korea) tested nuclear weapons, declared itself a nuclear weapon state, and withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in January 2001.
• Iran is actively pursuing a uranium enrichment program that it asserts is for a commercial nuclear energy industry, but that has led to global anxiety about its intentions with regard to nuclear weapons development.
• More than 40 states have the capability to develop nuclear weapons because they possess nuclear power reactors and/or nuclear research reactors. [Click here for a list of nuclear capable states.]
• Despite the end of the Cold War, some 5,000 nuclear weapons are on hair-trigger alert, ready to be launched on a few minutes notice. Thousands more could be deployed in a short time.
• A typical modern 150-kiloton hydrogen bomb could cause somewhere between 736,000 and 8,660,000 deaths, depending on the population density of the target city.
• Nuclear weapons do not stand alone as weapons of mass destruction. The nuclear capability of some states is the excuse used by others to develop or maintain biological and chemical weapons. Thus nuclear weapons exacerbate the overall threat to our global survival.
• The number of countries with nuclear weapons capability, knowledge, or ambition will continue to grow unless governments and civil society commit themselves to policies and actions that will overcome the current nuclear weapons impasse.
• Fissile materials (plutonium and highly enriched uranium) needed to produce and maintain nuclear weapons are not being controlled or accounted for effectively, and efforts to cut off the production of fissile materials are still embryonic.
• The health and environmental consequences of nuclear weapons production and testing include deaths, cancers, illnesses and ever-accumulating toxic and radioactive waste. The long-term effects of radiation on individuals, future generations, or the planet are not fully understood.
• Arms control and disarmament progress has come to a virtual standstill despite a universal obligation to pursue and conclude complete nuclear disarmament.

From Nuclear Non-Proliferation to Nuclear Abolition

The current international security regime relies on the Non-Proliferation Treaty to contain the threat of nuclear weapons and provide a framework for nuclear disarmament. The NPT originated in 1968, came into force in 1970, and has kept proliferation generally contained across states (horizontal proliferation), although within some states arsenals have grown dramatically (vertical proliferation).

Photo: Robert del Tredici

The NPT recognized a "nuclear-weapon State" as one that had manufactured and exploded a nuclear weapon or nuclear explosive device prior to 1 January 1967. According to this definition, only the US, Russia, France, Britain and China are nuclear weapon states. These five states are also the five permanent members of the Security Council, the UN body authorized to identify threats to international peace and to enforce and maintain peace. In other words, the states with the most military power also have the most authority under the current international legal system.

The NPT regime includes the procedures and bodies that enforce it, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA has extensive experience with the technology and mechanisms necessary for nuclear disarmament and its verification, and recent developments serve to strengthen safeguards by improving the type of information gathered and the quality of analysis applied to it. However, the dual nature of the mission of the IAEA-preventing diversion of nuclear material to weapons purposes while promoting nuclear energy-weakens its effectiveness as an agency for the enforcement of non-proliferation. Moreover, the military facilities of the nuclear weapon states are not covered by safeguards, and the civilian, or commercial, facilities of these states are only submitted to safeguards on a voluntary basis. In contrast, the non-nuclear weapon states are expected to submit to full-scope safeguards (all nuclear facilities). Thus the IAEA safeguards system perpetuates the discriminatory nature of the NPT.

The cracks in the NPT regime have become increasingly obvious. The DPRK, Libya, and Iraq are known to have pursued nuclear weapons technology in recent years, and the DPRK has joined the ranks of the nuclear weapon states. India and Pakistan, who have refused to sign the NPT, both tested nuclear weapons in 1998, publicly rejecting the NPT regime. Israel is estimated to have up to 200 nuclear weapons. The material and skill to develop nuclear weapons are becoming increasingly difficult to contain. In short, the NPT regime is likely to weaken further unless an international effort is made to halt and reverse current trends. Nuclear proliferation will remain a risk as long as any states claim the right to possess nuclear weapons.

A variety of efforts across states, industries, institutions, and non-governmental channels is necessary if there is to be reversal of nuclear proliferation and the possibility of nuclear abolition. For this reason, IPPNW has taken a range of different approaches to address the nuclear threat under the rubric of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), including research and education, physician dialogues with decision makers, and grassroots action.

For more information about the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), contact John Loretz, Program Director, IPPNW, 727 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02139; 617-868-5050, ext. 280.